CA In Seismic Drought - Big Earthquake Coming

Post date: Feb 2, 2018 5:43:09 PM

CA In Seismic Drought But Big Earthquake Coming, Professor Says

California is long overdue for an earthquake with a magnitude larger than 7 but one will come soon, says a university professor.

By Hoa Quách, Patch Staff | Jan 31, 2018 7:15 pm ET | Updated Feb 1, 2018 5:21 pm ET

10 Books You Need To Read In February 2018
CA In Seismic Drought But Big Earthquake Coming, Professor Says

CALIFORNIA -- California is long overdue for an earthquake with a magnitude larger than 7 but one will come soon, said a Colorado State University professor. Richard Aster, a professor of geophysics, wrote this week that the state has been in an "earthquake drought" for years with the last earthquake greater than a magnitude of 7.0 happening in 1906 in San Francisco.

The so-called drought is more serious than most people realize, Aster wrote for TheConversation.com.

"The earthquake situation in California is actually more dire than people who aren't seismologists like myself may realize," Aster wrote. "Multiple segments of the expansive San Andreas Fault system are now sufficiently stressed to produce large and damaging events."

Aster explained that the San Francisco earthquake, which killed roughly 3,000 people, was the last shake that was more than 7 in magnitude. The result is that "strands of the fault system accumulate stresses that correspond to a seismic slip of millimeters to centimeters."

"Eventually, these stresses will be released suddenly in earthquakes," Aster wrote. "Reflecting this deficit, the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system."

Thankfully, California's government has made headway in improving infrastructure and planning. Those efforts will be tested when the big one hits, Aster wrote.

"As California prepares for large earthquakes after a hiatus of more than a century, the clock is ticking," Aster wrote.

Here are earthquake preparedness tips from the American Red Cross:

Also See:

Are You Really Ready for the Next Big California Earthquake?

Maybe You're Ready For An Earthquake, But What About Fido?